Football Betting: English Premier League
The Premier League is the most popular football league in the world in terms of global TV audiences, Media interest, number of Fantasy Football teams based around it and last but not least, English Premier League betting.
There are any number of reasons for its popularity. There are the passionate fans who blindly support their sides through thick and thin, the high-intensity football played at breakneck pace and the fact that even the biggest underdogs never know when they’re beaten and gave their all to the last kick of the ball.
That’s all part of what makes the league as a whole so compelling, and EPL football betting so appealing.
Premier League Winners: The Magnificent Seven
Since it started back in 1992 as a newly named and branded competition, there have been just seven winners of it, and as we’ll soon see, up until recently, there were just five.
The Red Devils
The dominant force since it began are Manchester United with a mammoth 13 titles, thanks not only to the incredible managerial qualities of Sir Alex Ferguson but also the fact that over the years they’ve boasted a wonderful array of home-grown players like David Beckham, Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, Gary Neville and more recently, Marcus Rashford. Well, that and the fact they’ve also managed to attract some of the finest imports ever to grace the Premier League, players such as Eric Cantona, Carlos Tevez, Roy Keane, Peter Schmeichel, Jaap Stam and that rather good player that is Cristiano Ronaldo.
Next up are Chelsea, who have five wins and really benefited from two spells with Jose Mourinho in charge. The Portuguese’s powers may be on the wane and he’s not everyone’s cup of tea at the best of times. But that side of his between 2004 and 2007 was brilliant and at times, highly entertaining to watch. It’s fitting that these days it’s one of his most trusted players from that era—Frank Lampard—who is in charge at Stamford Bridge.
… And the rest
Arsenal won it three times under Arsene Wenger, Blackburn Rovers once when they had a heck of a side back in 1995 and then of course there was Leicester City’s mind-boggling win back in 2015-16 when as 5000-1 chances, they just kept on winning when no-one thought they could keep it up and caused one of the greatest shocks in football history.
Completing the list are Manchester City (four wins), who made the most of their financial muscle by packing their teams with world-class superstars like David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne and getting wonderful coaches to be in charge.
Last but not least, there’s Liverpool. It was a long wait till they finally won it in 2019-20 but their fans will tell you it was worth the wait and that it was one of the most impressive title wins we’ve seen in English Premier League football.
Premier League Top Goalscorers
A few of the world’s best-ever strikers from the last 20 years have made their mark in the Premier League. From the predatory instincts of Ruud van Nistelrooy, to the flamboyance of Jurgen Klinsmann and the deadly finishing of Cristiano Ronaldo. Yet, the history books tell us that only two non-English players feature in the Top 10 Premier League goalscorers of all time. Sergio Aguero is fourth at the time of writing on 180 with the great Thierry Henry in sixth on 175. Interestingly, Aguero is the only player on that Top 10 list who can add to his tally because he’s the only one who is currently playing English Premier League football.
But the undoubted King of the Premier League goal is Alan Shearer. The former England captain not only leads the list by some considerable margin- his 260 goals is 52 more than anyone else- but he also boasted a very high ratio of 0.59 goals a game in the Premier League, a mark only beaten by Henry and Aguero, both on 0.68 goals a game.
Shearer played 441 matches in the Premier League over a 14-year Premier League career at Southampton, Blackburn (where he won the league) and then finally in his hometown club of Newcastle. He famously brought about the wrath of Sir Alex Ferguson, who twice tried to sign him for Manchester United, only for Shearer to decide his future lay elsewhere.
Huge credit also goes to Frank Lampard, the only midfielder making the list. Yes, he played a fair few more matches than anyone else on the list and a fair few of his goals were penalties but it’s still a remarkable achievement.
Leading goal scorers in English Premier League football history
|6||Thierry Henry||1999–2007, 2012||175||258||0.68|
|8||Jermain Defoe||2001–2003, 2004–2014, 2015–2019||162||496||0.33|
|9||Michael Owen||1996–2004, 2005–13||150||326||0.46|
And Thierry Henry did something Shearer never managed to do. Henry was the Premier League top goalscorer on four different occasions (2001-2, 2003-4, 2004-5 and 2005-6) while Shearer managed it just twice, the same number as Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Mo Salah, Harry Kane, Robin van Persie and Didier Drogba.
Did you know?
In the 2018-19 season, there was a three-way tie for top goalscorer honours with Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all on 22 goals. Interestingly, the same thing happened in 1997-98 and 1998-99. On both those occasions Michael Owen was part of the three-way tie and on both occasions, he scored 18 goals for the season.
|4||Sergio Agüero||Manchester City||21|
|5||Jamie Vardy||Leicester City||18|
|6||Harry Kane||Tottenham Hotspur||17|
|Raheem Sterling||Manchester City|
|Paul Pogba||Manchester United|
|Glenn Murray||Brighton & Hove Albion|
|Raúl Jiménez||Wolverhampton Wanderers|
Things were tight at the top of the goalscorer market for the 2018-19 season
English Premier League football betting
As the most popular football betting league in the world, it’s no surprise that the world’s best bookmakers are rushing to lay odds on anything they can, both as long-term betting markets that last a whole season, and as individual match markets.
English Premier League betting markets: Season
The winner market is obviously a good place to start when it comes to placing an EPL satta; and that freak of a season aside where Leicester defied the odds and then some, it’s normally the favourite or second favourite who end up as champions. Over the last couple of seasons that’s been Manchester City and Liverpool starting out as favourites and justifying their favouritism. It follows that over the course of a season and 38 games, the cream rises to the top and that the sides with the best managers, classiest players and best game plans are the ones who have the weapons to win a Premier League crown. Who are inevitably the favourites, so save your money to back them, or for other English Premier League football betting markets.
Such as the Top 4 market, the relegation market, the rock bottom market and of course the Premier League top goalscorer market.
The trend over the years is that at least one of the newly promoted sides inevitably goes down and is sometimes joined by another fellow newcomer to the league. But that still leaves at least one side who goes down who had been in the Premier League the season before.
When looking for a big-priced team to go down who hasn’t just come up, look for those who lack a proven goalscorer and/or goalscoring midfielders. There are only so many times you can play for 0-0 or nick a 1-0 win against the odds and the teams who really struggle to score goals are up against it from the word ‘go’. Sounds obvious but it’s true.
Top 4 market
Unless something out of the ordinary happens, one has to assume that for the next few seasons Liverpool and Manchester City are shoo-ins for Top 4 places. But not only are the traditional powerhouses like Manchester United, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal fighting it out for the other two places but so are an impressive Wolves and a rejuvenated Everton, who for the first time are competing with the big boys in terms of buying power when it comes to players.
Before playing this market, consider some of the following questions. Are the team you’re thinking of backing a well-balanced side? Can they keep 10-15 clean sheets a season and score at least once in just about every match? Is theirs a manager who knows the league well and has a proven track record of delivering strong results in the toughest leagues? Will they have money to spend in the summer and possibly January to improve their squad? Are they likely to take points off their rivals or can they not handle the big occasions? The answer to all of these questions will have to be ‘yes’ before you think about backing them.
English Premier League betting markets: Match
Obviously the most popular market is who’s going to win the game. Some people will argue that when it comes to EPL football betting there’s better value to be found on other markets other than this one because this is the one that odds-compilers spend most time analysing. But if you are going to play it, always make sure that you at least get the best possible odds on whatever you’re backing.
You can make sure you do this by having accounts with multiple betting companies.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
At first glance, the number of goals in a match may seem like a totally random thing. But it really isn’t. Some teams play attacking football where they’re happy to concede goals as long as they score plenty. Other sides prefer to keep things as tight as possible and consider 0-0 a pretty good result if their objective is to just not lose, rather than trying to win. Detailed analysis of stats will show which teams have a tendency for being involved in high-scoring games, and which are candidates for low-scoring games where ‘unders’ is the bet.
Case study: In the 2018/19 season, 74% of Arsenal’s away games went over 2.5 goals so even though ‘overs’ was favourite, it was still a good bet to go for over 2.5 goals when they were away from the Emirates. Conversely, Wolves had just 37% of both home and away matches that season go over 2.5 goals so their games were serious candidates for under 2.5 goals. The best analysis involves looking at the goals record for both teams, whether matches between the two tend to have goals and the circumstances of that very match.
To score/anytime goalscorer
If you prefer slightly more speculative bets, this could be one for you. The first thing to do is to identify a game where you think there might be plenty of goals. After all, there’s no point trying to predict who might score a goal if the match has 0-0 written all over it.
When it comes to these bets, there are two obvious strategies. The first is to go for proven goalscorers like Salah, Aguero, Harry Kane or Jamie Vardy at prices between about 2.0 and 3.0. The pay-outs aren’t huge but these are players who have excellent scoring records so you can’t expect miracles in terms of the odds.
The alternative is to look for less regular scorers at far bigger prices. Players like Mason Mount, Gylfi Sigurdsson or Bernardo Silva don’t score nearly as often but they score often enough and they’ll be around the 4.0 to 6.0 mark to score on average; so you only nee to get it right a few times a season with them to be in profit.
Other popular English Premier League football betting markets include: both teams to score, clean sheet, half time/full time, half time score, (90 minutes) correct score, Asian handicap, first goalscorer and whether there will be a red card in the match.